Analyst who predicted oil shock sees 18-23% market drop risk

Cem Karsan predicts markets could drop another 18-23%, risking a total drawdown of 35% by early fall. He anticipates a 'stair-step' decline rather than a crash. Karsan argues the conflict is about oil dominance and the Strait of Hormuz, identifying China as the real adversary, not Iran. He expects the US will police the waterway to constrain China's energy access.