How will US, Israeli strikes on Iran affect oil markets?

US-Israel strikes on Iran raise fears of supply shocks. Iran produces about 3.1 million barrels/day and exports 1.3-1.5 million, mostly to China. Around 20 million barrels/day pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Analyst Arne Lohmann Rasmussen warns even security doubts could spike insurance costs, disrupt shipping and push oil prices sharply higher.