India overestimated GDP growth 2012–2023, informal sector hit

A Peterson Institute paper by economists Abhishek Anand, Josh Felman, and Arvind Subramanian shows India overestimated GDP growth by 1.5–2 points from 2012–2023, averaging 4–4.5% instead of 6%. Growth from 2005–2011 was underestimated by 1–1.5 points. Analysts cite the formal sector proxy affecting the informal sector after 2015 shocks like demonetization, GST, and COVID.