Maths model simulates FIFA World Cup 2026 matches 1 million times; predicts winner

A mathematical model by Bond University data scientist Steven Stern, which simulated the FIFA World Cup 2026 matches one million times, has tipped Spain (15.8%) as favourites to win the title. France (15.6%), Argentina (15.3%) and England (11%) are the only other teams with over 10% chance. Meanwhile, Portugal has been given 4.7% chance to win the title.