Trader loses ₹36 lakh betting on US attacking Iran, probability of attack by June 30 still at 54%

A Polymarket trader lost $40,000 (over ₹36 lakh) after he bet that US would attack Iran before midnight on January 14. The trader had made just one bet on his newly-created account and had bet the entire amount in dozens of bets over just four hours. Polymarket still shows the probability of US attacking Iran before June 30 at 55%.