India's fertiliser subsidy bill for FY27 could exceed the current Budget estimate of ₹1.71 lakh crore by 28% to ₹2.2 lakh crore amid trade disruptions linked to the Middle East war, a government official said. The estimates include ₹1.16-lakh-crore urea subsidy and ₹54,000-crore non-urea fertiliser subsidy. Costs could rise "if the current geopolitical situation continues", the official added.